Race 8 · Kempton Parkpool vs model · today
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 11FREDDIE'S STAR (IRE)+0.520% · 20%
  2. 10THE COFFEE POD (IRE)-3.317% · 20%
  3. 4LIEUTENANT KIJE (GB)-1.514% · 15%
  4. 1INVINCIBLE SPEED (IRE)+2.913% · 10%
  5. 7MONSIEUR PATAT (GB)-0.111% · 11%
  6. 5HK FOURTEEN (IRE)+1.88% · 6%
  7. 8TIGER TULIP (GB)-0.25% · 5%
FREDDIE'S STAR (IRE) is the pick: model 20% against a 20% pool share · verdict ↓

Musselburgh, Kempton Park picks — Wed 4 Nov 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's British cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 2,226 races, for every British track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →🏇 Run the race →

9 races today · 1 days on file · walk-forward test on 1,626 races out of sample · how it scored

Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 2 tracks1 usable of 9 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Wed 04 Nov 2026, 18:09 UK time · permalink

4 of 9 races have no pool yet; those are listed in card order without a verdict.

Unproven model — read this first

In a walk-forward test on 1,626 races the combined model did not beat the tote pool (-0.2 points on top-3 coverage). The ranks below are published as an open experiment: each one is written before the race and scored on the record, with the pool favourite as the benchmark to beat.

Today · Wed 4 Nov 2026

9 races across Musselburgh, Kempton Park. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Musselburgh · 12 runners

Blind
5f Turf · Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 12 with British form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little British form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 9ALNOFOOR (GB) (1)S A GRAY · C O'CONNELL · draw 8 · pool 36% · market #1—#1
  2. 3WEN MOON (IRE) (11)A MULLEN · B HASLAM · draw 9 · pool 23% · market #2—#2
  3. 5ALBEGONE (GB) (2)D ALLAN · T D EASTERBY · draw 2 · pool 17% · market #3—#3
  4. 11FEAR AND FAST (GB) (5)CAM HARDIE · J S GOLDIE · draw 11 · pool 10% · market #4—#4
  5. 2HARB (GB)JASON HART · T DAVIDSON · draw 3 · pool — · market #11scr#5
  6. 1THUNDERSTORM KATIE (GB) (8)LAUREN YOUNG · J S GOLDIE · draw 12 · pool 5% · market #5—#6
  7. 10GANESHA (GB) (7)ZAK WHEATLEY · PHILLIP MAKIN · draw 5 · pool — · market #12—#7
  8. 4VALOR SPIRIT (IRE) (6)P MULRENNAN · B SMART · draw 6 · pool 4% · market #6—#8
  9. 12ROYAL DUKE (GB) (3)RHYS ELLIOTT · R M SMITH · draw 1 · pool 2% · market #7—#9
  10. 7PICKERSGILL (IRE) (9)M P SHEEHY · I JARDINE · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #8—#10
  11. 8EDGEWATER DRIVE (IRE) (10)GREG FAIRLEY · W STOREY · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #9—#11
  12. 6JUSTMYLUCK (GB) (4)WILLIAM PYLE · MISS L A PERRATT · draw 10 · pool 1% · market #10—#12

Race 2 · Musselburgh · 8 runners

Blind
7f Turf · Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 8 with British form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little British form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 6TRUE HEART (GB) (3)O J ORR · I FURTADO · draw 3 · pool 66% · market #1—#1
  2. 4SEQUOIADENDRON (USA) (6)P MULRENNAN · R HANNON · draw 1 · pool 13% · market #2—#2
  3. 3SO FARHH (GB) (1)D ALLAN · T D EASTERBY · draw 4 · pool 10% · market #3—#3
  4. 1FRONTIER LEGEND (GB) (8)SEAN KIRRANE · M DODS · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#4
  5. 2EVERSABI (IRE) (2)JASON HART · JACK JONES · draw 5 · pool 6% · market #4—#5
  6. 5TALORA (IRE) (7)T EAVES · I FURTADO · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#6
  7. 8WILD MARY'S ROSE (GER) (4)JOANNA MASON · G TUTTY · draw 6 · pool 3% · market #5—#7
  8. 7UNLAWFILLY (IRE) (5)S H JAMES · C TIMMONS · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #6—#8

Race 3 · Musselburgh · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
12½f Turf · Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 11 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1NATURALIA (GB) (4)A MULLEN · D W WHILLANS · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3GREY FABLE (IRE) (3)JASON HART · K THORNTON · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2KARTINI (IRE) (2)P MULRENNAN · S WHITAKER · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5KINROSS CLARET (IRE) (9)O J ORR · L RUSSELL & M SCUDAMORE · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 7COUGAR (JPN) (6)JOANNA MASON · N KENT · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 4BATTOSAI (IRE) (8)S H JAMES · JACK MORLAND · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6MISS VERONIKA (GB) (10)D SWIFT · B ELLISON · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 9FLYING MOONLIGHT (IRE) (1)GREG FAIRLEY · A M THOMSON · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 10PAROLE OFFICER (GB) (7)WILLIAM PYLE · EWAN WHILLANS · draw 11 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 8DANDY'S ANGEL (IRE) (5)TOM KIELY-MARSHALL · J S WAINWRIGHT · draw 2 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 11GALISTRA (FR) (11)RHYS ELLIOTT · A D BROWN · draw 10 · pool — · market #11—#11

Race 4 · Musselburgh · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
12½f Turf · Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 10 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7EAGLES DREAM (IRE) (6)S A GRAY · T DAVIDSON · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4IDYLLIC (GB) (8)GREG FAIRLEY · W STOREY · draw 10 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2WATCHA SNOOP (IRE) (4)CAM HARDIE · A NICOL · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3OFF SPIN (IRE) (1)D ALLAN · MISS GAY KELLEWAY · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5GEMINI MAN (IRE) (2)A MULLEN · I JARDINE · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1ALPINE SIERRA (IRE) (5)LAUREN YOUNG · J S GOLDIE · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 8WEST SLEEKBURN LAD (GB) (9)O MCSWEENEY · P D NIVEN · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 6HICKTON (IRE) (10)ZAK WHEATLEY · D CARROLL · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 9FALAISE BLANC (FR) (3)RHYS ELLIOTT · K SCOTT · draw 2 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 10GEMICAL (IRE) (7)MOLLY KEEGAN-PRICE · R MENZIES · draw 6 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 5 · Musselburgh · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
16f Turf · Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 1 of 12 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4AIGHEAR (GB)P MULRENNAN · J S GOLDIE · draw 6 · pool — · market #1scr#1
  2. 3RICH BELIEF (GB) (1)JASON HART · K THORNTON · draw 8 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2QUERCUS ROBUR (GB) (4)CAM HARDIE · A NICOL · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1NED BROY (IRE) (8)A MULLEN · I JARDINE · draw 12 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 7BOLLIN NEIL (GB) (6)D ALLAN · T D EASTERBY · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 10NEDDIES BOY (IRE) (7)S A GRAY · D BOURKE · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 8STORM ON JURA (GB) (5)LAUREN YOUNG · J S GOLDIE · draw 10 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 11NOTHINGBUTADREAM (IRE) (11)O J ORR · C TIMMONS · draw 3 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 5QUEEN ROSLYN (GB) (3)D SWIFT · B ELLISON · draw 4 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 9SUGARPIEHONEYBUNCH (IRE) (9)AIDEN BROOKES · S G WEST · draw 1 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 12GALAHAD THREEPWOOD (GB) (2)GREG FAIRLEY · EWAN WHILLANS · draw 11 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 6CHARLIE DARLING (FR) (10)T EAVES · A D BROWN · draw 2 · pool — · market #12—#12

Race 6 · Musselburgh · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
8f Turf · Handicap · 4yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 10 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (IRE) (2)JASON HART · J & S QUINN · draw 10 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 7CAVALLO PAZZO (IRE) (6)S A GRAY · D BOURKE · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2ABLON (FR) (9)P MULRENNAN · R HANNON · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 4TOLSTOY (IRE) (3)D SWIFT · B ELLISON · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6BARLEY (IRE) (4)D ALLAN · T D EASTERBY · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 3IZZARI (GER) (7)CARA TUKE · I JARDINE · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5GOOD MORNING ALEX (GB) (1)O J ORR · T D BARRON · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 10ESCAPE ACT (IRE) (10)A MULLEN · MRS J C MCGREGOR · draw 3 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 9MOTAWAARED (GB) (5)LAUREN YOUNG · J S GOLDIE · draw 4 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 8QUIET RESOLVE (IRE) (8)T EAVES · A D BROWN · draw 7 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 7 · Musselburgh · 12 runners

Blind
7f Turf · Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 12 with British form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little British form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 10HOMESTRAIT (IRE) (9)JASON HART · B ELLISON · draw 6 · pool 36% · market #1—#1
  2. 11THE RESDEV SCHOLAR (IRE) (1)JOANNA MASON · M & D EASTERBY · draw 2 · pool 18% · market #2—#2
  3. 1GOLDEN MIND (IRE) (2)O J ORR · R A FAHEY · draw 10 · pool 10% · market #5—#3
  4. 3RHOSCOLYN (GB) (8)C J WHITELEY · D O'MEARA · draw 11 · pool 11% · market #3—#4
  5. 6QUEST FOR FUN (GB) (5)D ALLAN · T D EASTERBY · draw 1 · pool 11% · market #4—#5
  6. 2WITCH HUNTER (FR) (4)P MULRENNAN · R HANNON · draw 4 · pool 5% · market #6—#6
  7. 7DANDY MAGIC (IRE) (6)LAUREN YOUNG · J S GOLDIE · draw 8 · pool 5% · market #7—#7
  8. 9COUNT PALATINE (IRE) (10)SEAN KIRRANE · M DODS · draw 5 · pool — · market #12—#8
  9. 8COUNTY CARLOW (IRE) (11)A MULLEN · B HASLAM · draw 3 · pool 2% · market #8—#9
  10. 5MUDAMER (IRE) (12)S H JAMES · G A HARKER · draw 7 · pool 1% · market #9—#10
  11. 4HUNKY DORY (GB) (3)TOM KIELY-MARSHALL · MISS L A PERRATT · draw 12 · pool 1% · market #10—#11
  12. 12CARGIN BHUI (IRE) (7)WILLIAM PYLE · T D BARRON · draw 9 · pool 1% · market #11—#12

Race 8 · Musselburgh · 12 runners

Blind
7f Turf · Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 12 with British form on file

No verdict: the model has nothing to add here (too little British form on file). The order below is the market only.

  1. 9VINCE LE PRINCE (GB) (4)D ALLAN · T D EASTERBY · draw 3 · pool 24% · market #1—#1
  2. 6ASHEN (IRE) (3)P MULRENNAN · J S GOLDIE · draw 12 · pool 17% · market #2—#2
  3. 2WOBWOBWOB (IRE) (6)M P SHEEHY · A KEATLEY · draw 6 · pool 11% · market #4—#3
  4. 4BLACK STORM (IRE) (8)JASON HART · K SCOTT · draw 11 · pool 11% · market #5—#4
  5. 1ABDUCTION (FR) (2)LAUREN YOUNG · J S GOLDIE · draw 8 · pool 12% · market #3—#5
  6. 7CAROLUS MAGNUS (IRE) (5)JOANNA MASON · M & D EASTERBY · draw 5 · pool 10% · market #6—#6
  7. 5THE GAY BLADE (GB) (7)A MULLEN · I JARDINE · draw 7 · pool 5% · market #7—#7
  8. 11JKR COBBLER (IRE) (9)CARA TUKE · I JARDINE · draw 9 · pool 4% · market #8—#8
  9. 8NOT ME (GB) (10)T EAVES · A D BROWN · draw 2 · pool 2% · market #9—#9
  10. 3YORKSHIRE GLORY (IRE) (12)AIDEN BROOKES · B HASLAM · draw 10 · pool 1% · market #10—#10
  11. 12INDIA GOLD (IRE) (11)S A GRAY · MISS GAY KELLEWAY · draw 4 · pool 1% · market #11—#11
  12. 10BAY BREEZE (GB) (1)D FENTIMAN · T D EASTERBY · draw 1 · pool 1% · market #12—#12

Race 8 · Kempton Park · 11 runners

Usable
6f Synthetic · Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 11 with British form on file
The Guv'nor saysOpen race
11The pickFREDDIE'S STAR (IRE)pool 20% · model 20.5% · MARCO GHIANI
10Next bestTHE COFFEE POD (IRE)pool 20% · model 16.7% · LEWIS EDMUNDS
1At a priceINVINCIBLE SPEED (IRE)pool 10% · model 12.9% · BILLY LOUGHNANE

FREDDIE'S STAR (IRE) (11) is the pick: model 20% against a 20% pool share, 5 runs of British form on file, edge +0.5 points.

The pool agrees: our pick is also the favourite.

THE COFFEE POD (IRE) (10) is rated almost level and could just as easily be the one; treat this race as open.

For something at a price, INVINCIBLE SPEED (IRE) (1) carries +2.9 points of edge from a 10% pool share.

Pool share plus measured form. Every runner's rank is written before the first race and scored on the record.
  1. 11FREDDIE'S STAR (IRE)MARCO GHIANI · R A TEAL · draw 8 · pool 20% · market #1+0.5#1
  2. 10THE COFFEE POD (IRE)LEWIS EDMUNDS · W MUIR & C GRASSICK · draw 1 · pool 20% · market #2-3.3#2
  3. 4LIEUTENANT KIJE (GB)DAVID PROBERT · T WARD · draw 4 · pool 15% · market #3-1.5#3
  4. 1INVINCIBLE SPEED (IRE)BILLY LOUGHNANE · D M LOUGHNANE · draw 10 · pool 10% · market #5+2.9#4
  5. 7MONSIEUR PATAT (GB)FINLEY MARSH · A WINTLE · draw 3 · pool 11% · market #4-0.1#5
  6. 5HK FOURTEEN (IRE)HOLLIE DOYLE · A W CARROLL · draw 11 · pool 6% · market #6+1.8#6
  7. 8TIGER TULIP (GB)L MORRIS · H MAIN · draw 5 · pool 5% · market #7-0.2#7
  8. 9DARK ALLEY (GB)EDWARD GREATREX · W GREATREX · draw 6 · pool 4% · market #9+0.8#8
  9. 6EARLY RELEASE (GB)CHARLES BISHOP · P D EVANS · draw 7 · pool 5% · market #8-1.2#9
  10. 3AN OUTLAW'S GRACE (IRE)MR BEN POLLARD · R HANNON · draw 9 · pool 3% · market #10-0.1#10
  11. 2RECEIPT (GB)K T O'NEILL · T ELLIS · draw 2 · pool 1% · market #11+0.4#11

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on British racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 2,226 British races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 1,626 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-13.5 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves -0.2 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: failed. The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.83 · form3 +0.25 · adres -0.23 · antrenor +0.22 · son_bitis -0.18 · jokey +0.16 · aygir +0.14 · siklet +0.08 · damsire +0.08 · kgs -0.04 · h2h -0.04 · sahip +0.03 · draw +0.02 · hp -0.02 · n_gecmis +0.01 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have British form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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