Race 8 · Kempton Parkpool vs model · Wed 4 Nov 2026
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 11FREDDIE'S STAR (IRE)+0.520% · 20%
  2. 10THE COFFEE POD (IRE)-3.317% · 20%
  3. 4LIEUTENANT KIJE (GB)-1.514% · 15%
  4. 1INVINCIBLE SPEED (IRE)+2.913% · 10%
  5. 7MONSIEUR PATAT (GB)-0.111% · 11%
  6. 5HK FOURTEEN (IRE)+1.88% · 6%
  7. 8TIGER TULIP (GB)-0.25% · 5%
Result pending · record

Southwell, Chelmsford City picks — Thu 5 Nov 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's British cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 2,226 races, for every British track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

18 races today · 2 days on file · walk-forward test on 1,626 races out of sample · how it scored

Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 2 tracks0 usable of 18 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Wed 04 Nov 2026, 19:31 UK time · permalink

Pools not open yet

The Turkish tote opens its win pool on these 18 British races on the morning of the card (it stays thin until close to post time). This page was written from the race cards alone; verdicts and pool shares fill in about an hour before each track’s first race, once the pool has formed. Meanwhile: yesterday's results · the record.

Unproven model — read this first

In a walk-forward test on 1,626 races the combined model did not beat the tote pool (-0.2 points on top-3 coverage). The ranks below are published as an open experiment: each one is written before the race and scored on the record, with the pool favourite as the benchmark to beat.

Today · Thu 5 Nov 2026

18 races across Southwell, Chelmsford City. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Southwell · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 12 of 13 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 5MAYFLYER (GB)S D BOWEN · T CULHANE & S BARCLAY · draw 11 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 6ROGUE DE VEGA (GB)CAM HARDIE · A BRITTAIN · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 7LIKEADYINWASP (IRE)ZAK WHEATLEY · D CARROLL · draw 10 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 8ALEPPO PEPPER (IRE)L MORRIS · J RYAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4FLETCHER'S FLIGHT (IRE)C T KEANE · C WALLIS · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 3WILD ACT (GB)J F EGAN · D K IVORY · draw 12 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 1LITTLE JAYBEE (GB)EDWARD GREATREX · P D EVANS · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 2MACANUDO (IRE)C J WHITELEY · IAN WILLIAMS · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 9SANDS OF SEVE (GB)BARRY MCHUGH · S HANLON · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 12A LADY FOREVER (GB)JUDE MAHER · S HANLON · draw 13 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 11TEN CUIDADO (IRE)ROSE DAWES · M D I USHER · draw 4 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 10VANNESSA (GB)JACK DACE · P R CHAMINGS · draw 6 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 13LOCHABER (GB)LAURA COUGHLAN · S DIXON · draw 1 · pool — · market #13—#13

Race 2 · Southwell · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 9 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1ONEFORTHEGUTTER (GB)EDWARD GREATREX · IAN WILLIAMS · draw 7 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2NOLTON CROSS (IRE)DAVID PROBERT · H PALMER · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3PRINCE OF CALYPSO (IRE)JACK CALLAN · E BETHELL · draw 3 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 8WITHOUT COMPROMISE (GB)CAM HARDIE · A BRITTAIN · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 7JOSEPH (GB)L MORRIS · J BUTLER · draw 9 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5LADY MAGU (GB)S D BOWEN · R VARIAN · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6JOHN T (GB)C LEE · J G PORTMAN · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 4OPTICIAN (GB)JASON HART · M HERRINGTON · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 9NAVAL COMMAND (GB)HOLLIE DOYLE · R MENZIES · draw 1 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 3 · Southwell · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 13 of 13 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1CALYXOH (IRE)JACK CALLAN · P MORRIS · draw 6 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5BENACRE (IRE)JASON HART · C JOHNSTON · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6ORANGESANDLEMONS (GB)C HORGAN · E BETHELL · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 9PACKETOFBISCUITS (GB)L MORRIS · J MACKIE · draw 1 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3IT'SNEVERJUSTONE (GB)NON RUNNER · D LOUGHNANE · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8MIDSUMMER STORM (IRE)ALISTAIR RAWLINSON · K FROST · draw 13 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 12EY UP HE'S A STAR (GB)D NOLAN · T COYLE & K WOOD · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 10DIDAAR (IRE)T EAVES · GIHAN ARNOLDA · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 4SIGNCASTLE CITY (IRE)S M LEVEY · R HANNON · draw 12 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 2DOVEY MOON (GB)MARCO GHIANI · P D EVANS · draw 3 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 7LILLIE MARGOT (GB)J GARRITTY · JEDD O'KEEFFE · draw 10 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 11RUSHEEN BOY (GB)DYLAN HOGAN · J & S BIRKETT · draw 2 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 13ALESSIA FERNANDA (IRE)C J WHITELEY · D CARROLL · draw 11 · pool — · market #13—#13

Race 4 · Southwell · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
Allowance · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 9 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2FENAROLI (GB)C T KEANE · HARRY CHARLTON · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4KESARI (GB)L MORRIS · SIR MARK PRESCOTT · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 8ROGUE INFERNO (IRE)DAVID PROBERT · E BETHELL · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1BOMBORA (GB)C LEE · K R BURKE · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 9THE DARK PRINCE (IRE)MARCO GHIANI · S C WILLIAMS · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 3HARROW ON THE HILL (IRE)DANIEL MUSCUTT · GEORGE SCOTT · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5KNIGHTBOLT (IRE)S A GRAY · K A RYAN · draw 7 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 7MUNAJAD (IRE)KAIYA FRASER · HARRY EUSTACE · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 6LEABANK (IRE)TOM KIELY-MARSHALL · MISS J A CAMACHO · draw 1 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 5 · Southwell · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
Handicap, fillies & mares · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 10 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7FORBIDDEN COLOURS (IRE)K SHOEMARK · E WALKER · draw 8 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1LADY MARIKO (GB)MARCO GHIANI · DYLAN CUNHA · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6MOUNTAIN OF LIGHT (GB)DANIEL MUSCUTT · JAMES HORTON · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5LOPE EL FUEGO (IRE)EDWARD GREATREX · W GREATREX · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 2DIAMONDINTHEDARK (GB)L MORRIS · D M LOUGHNANE · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 3RIBENSKA (IRE)DAVID PROBERT · C FELLOWES · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 10FISTRAL BEACH (IRE)LEWIS EDMUNDS · J MACKIE · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8SPIRIT OF JENNY (IRE)C LEE · STEPH HOLLINSHEAD · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 4ENOLA GREY (IRE)LAURA COUGHLAN · G TUTTY · draw 1 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 9MAYO COUNTY (GB)RYAN SEXTON · MISS J A CAMACHO · draw 10 · pool — · market #10—#10

Race 6 · Southwell · 14 runners

NO POOL YET
Handicap · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 10 of 14 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 4THAI BAHT (GB)CALLUM RODRIGUEZ · OWEN BURROWS · draw 11 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5VENTURA POWER (GB)JACK CALLAN · G BOUGHEY · draw 14 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1NORTH STAR KODI (IRE)O J ORR · R A FAHEY · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 7BLACK GIN (GB)L MORRIS · I FURTADO · draw 12 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 11PRIDE'S QUEEN (GB)MARCO GHIANI · M BOTTI · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 3QUIET SOUL (IRE)JASON HART · M HERRINGTON · draw 10 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 12ADELAIDES TURN (GB)EDWARD GREATREX · R M H COWELL · draw 9 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 2SEATHEGULLS (GB)T P QUEALLY · JAMIE & JOSH MOORE · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 8GET ON THAT BABY (IRE)JOANNA MASON · M & D EASTERBY · draw 7 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 13RUM POINT (IRE)ZAK WHEATLEY · D CARROLL · draw 3 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 10CURIOUS MINX (GB)S M LEVEY · R HANNON · draw 8 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 6ANGELIC MELODY (IRE)RYAN SEXTON · MISS J A CAMACHO · draw 13 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 14COMMANDER KEITH (IRE)WILLIAM PYLE · K FROST · draw 1 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 9DREAM ON KENT (GB)HOLLIE DOYLE · P D EVANS · draw 2 · pool — · market #14—#14

Race 7 · Southwell · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
Maiden, fillies & mares · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 2 of 12 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2MOULTON QUEEN (IRE)JACK CALLAN · TOM CLOVER · draw 9 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 8WADIMA (GB)MARCO GHIANI · M BOTTI · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1CELESTIAL FIRE (IRE)HOLLIE DOYLE · A WATSON · draw 10 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5COTAI POWER (IRE)L MORRIS · T WARD · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 12MISS CLARICE (GB)C LEE · J G PORTMAN · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6HOYA BELLA (GB)DAVID PROBERT · JAMES OWEN · draw 12 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 3THRIVING MISS LACY (IRE)GEORGE BASS · D J COAKLEY · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 4ALANKA (IRE)O J ORR · R A FAHEY · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 9CANDY IS DANDY (IRE)DYLAN HOGAN · LEMOS SOUZA · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 10CLASSIC BELLINI (GB)D ALLAN · T D EASTERBY · draw 5 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 7SETUBAL (IRE)MASON PAETEL · H PALMER · draw 8 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 11LOVE ALWAYS (GB)S D BOWEN · OLLIE SANGSTER · draw 11 · pool — · market #12—#12

Race 8 · Southwell · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 8 of 9 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 8THAT'S RANDOM (GB)LEWIS EDMUNDS · HARRY CHARLTON · draw 3 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3STYLE KING (IRE)HOLLIE DOYLE · JESSICA MACEY · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4FAIR Y ISLE (GB)S D BOWEN · H J EVANS · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 7NORTH VIEW (GB)MOLLY GUNN · A W CARROLL · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5PROJECT WALLACE (IRE)ZAK WHEATLEY · D CARROLL · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6MR DREAMSELLER (GB)O J ORR · T D BARRON · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 2MODERN TIMES (GB)MASON PAETEL · JAMES OWEN · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 9TOUGH ENOUGH (GB)CAM HARDIE · A BRITTAIN · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 1JELLYSTONE PARK (GB)GEORGE BASS · J CHANNON · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 9 · Southwell · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 9 of 9 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3LOGI BEAR (IRE)L MORRIS · J BUTLER · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4CURIOUS ROVER (IRE)JASON HART · K SCOTT · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5ORMOLULU (IRE)C J WHITELEY · G TUTTY · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1STANLEY SPENCER (IRE)O J ORR · FIONN MCSHARRY · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 2STRAIGHT AHEAD (GB)T EAVES · CRAIG LIDSTER · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 9DOUBLE EAGLE (IRE)J F EGAN · M WIGHAM · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7MALDEVIOUS (IRE)D SWIFT · B ELLISON · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 6PRINCE OF PILLO (IRE)J GARRITTY · R A FAHEY · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 8INFINITY BLUE (IRE)TOM KIELY-MARSHALL · MISS J A CAMACHO · draw 4 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 1 · Chelmsford City · 14 runners

NO POOL YET
10f Synthetic · Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 14 of 14 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3POKE THE BEAR (IRE)K T O'NEILL · HAYLEY BURTON · draw 9 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5GIFTS DIFFERING (GB)ROSSA RYAN · R BURDON · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 10LABICHE (GB)BILLY LOUGHNANE · JAMES OWEN · draw 14 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 1JENSON BENSON (IRE)GINA MANGAN · S LYCETT · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4MUY MUY LOCO (IRE)HARRY DAVIES · S DOW · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2SAAHIR (IRE)DARRAGH KEENAN · GIHAN ARNOLDA · draw 10 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7FAR FAR OUT (IRE)WILLIAM CARSON · A W CARROLL · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 11LADY AIYANA (GB)ALICE BOND · MRS I G-LEVEQUE · draw 13 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 13LAPIDARIST (GB)TARYN LANGLEY · D M SIMCOCK · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 12THIS RIB (GB)JACK DOUGHTY · D LOUGHNANE · draw 1 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 6CELTIC SPIRIT (GB)R HAVLIN · K JEWELL · draw 5 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 8BENNYWORTH (IRE)HECTOR CROUCH · J R BOYLE · draw 2 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 9LIBERTY BIRD (GB)CHARLES BISHOP · H J EVANS · draw 11 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 14ECHO THAT (GB)FINLEY MARSH · P OWENS · draw 12 · pool — · market #14—#14

Race 2 · Chelmsford City · 14 runners

NO POOL YET
10f Synthetic · Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 14 of 14 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3EIGHTY EIGHT (IRE)CIEREN FALLON · JAMES OWEN · draw 13 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1POWER OF PRAYER (GER)CALLUM SHEPHERD · GEORGE BAKER · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 7TASKHEER (IRE)HECTOR CROUCH · JAMIE & JOSH MOORE · draw 11 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2WELLWHATSHAPPENIN (IRE)ROSSA RYAN · D FLOOD · draw 12 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 14TURTON (GB)BILLY LOUGHNANE · A W CARROLL · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 9SUITCASE SMITH (GB)GINA MANGAN · JOHN BERRY · draw 8 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 4MAKES ME WONDER (GB)TARYN LANGLEY · D M SIMCOCK · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8CAVALRY CALL (IRE)PADDY BRADLEY · P MORRIS · draw 2 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 13WILD ROSIE (GB)HARRY DAVIES · C A DWYER · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 5MISS MAMBO (IRE)SEAN KIRRANE · MISS GAY KELLEWAY · draw 9 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 11MONKS MEAD (GB)NICOLA CURRIE · M D I USHER · draw 7 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 12MASTER OF PUPPETS (FR)JASON WATSON · P BUTLER · draw 14 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 10HENFIELD (GB)CHARLES BISHOP · K JEWELL · draw 4 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 6READ ALL ABOUT IT (GB)ASHLEY LEWIS · W MUIR & C GRASSICK · draw 10 · pool — · market #14—#14

Race 3 · Chelmsford City · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
10f Synthetic · Handicap · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 5 of 9 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1QUEENS BANDIT (GB)BILLY LOUGHNANE · CHARLIE CLOVER · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2CHAISE LONGUE (GB)R HAVLIN · E A L DUNLOP · draw 8 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5BEST YET (GB)FINLEY MARSH · R HUGHES · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6WILD ORCHID (GB)CALLUM SHEPHERD · C JOHNSTON · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3WHISKEY GALORE (GB)HECTOR CROUCH · M L W BELL · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 4MAGICAL LIFE (GB)D EGAN · J S MOORE · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7TURTLE STAR (GB)HARRY DAVIES · J G PORTMAN · draw 4 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8ALLABOUTTHELUNCH (GB)K T O'NEILL · E SMYTH-OSBOURNE · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 9HOOSTHAT (GB)RHYS ELLIOTT · W MUIR & C GRASSICK · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 4 · Chelmsford City · 6 runners

NO POOL YET
16f Synthetic · Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 5 of 6 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2MUST BELIEVE (GB)BILLY LOUGHNANE · GEORGE BAKER · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4ENZIYA (IRE)CALLUM SHEPHERD · K PICKARD · draw 6 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1CHARGING THUNDER (GB)CHRISTIAN HOWARTH · JAMES OWEN · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3MR FREEDOM (GB)CHARLES BISHOP · MISS S WEST · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 5PYLEATES (GB)ASHLEY LEWIS · W MUIR & C GRASSICK · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 6BELLE OF KT (GB)MILLIE WONNACOTT · J S MOORE · draw 4 · pool — · market #6—#6

Race 5 · Chelmsford City · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
7¾f Synthetic · Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 11 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 7HITCHED (IRE)CHARLES BISHOP · D M SIMCOCK · draw 9 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5THIS FARH (GB)CALLUM SHEPHERD · D LOUGHNANE · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 4NAKAAHA (GB)ROSSA RYAN · G HARRIS · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2KALAMUNDA (GB)CIEREN FALLON · J PARR · draw 3 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3SEA FOUNDER (GB)FINLEY MARSH · R HUGHES · draw 10 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1HAVANA TOUCH (GB)D EGAN · J BUTLER · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6THE HARE RAIL (IRE)BILLY LOUGHNANE · R A TEAL · draw 11 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8MIGHTY VEGA (IRE)K T O'NEILL · S DIXON · draw 5 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 11BAJAN BANDIT (GB)MISS HOPE REGAN · P MORRIS · draw 1 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 10MUSASHI (IRE)MISS AMY TUCKER · P D EVANS · draw 8 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 9GOLDEN PHARAOH (IRE)CHRISTIAN HOWARTH · S DIXON · draw 2 · pool — · market #11—#11

Race 6 · Chelmsford City · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
7¾f Synthetic · Allowance · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 8 of 12 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1TOUGH DECISION (GB)D EGAN · TOM CLOVER · draw 11 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2BERKSHIRE DREAM (GB)JASON WATSON · A M BALDING · draw 8 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 3BIZZO FLAVIN (GB)ROSSA RYAN · R A TEAL · draw 9 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 5JEFFS ON A MISSION (GB)FINLEY MARSH · E SMYTH-OSBOURNE · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6OMEGA FERNANDEZ (GB)DARRAGH KEENAN · LEMOS SOUZA · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8SHEEPHAVENBAY (GB)GEORGE WOOD · JAMES HORTON · draw 5 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 10TARAN BOLTA (GB)HARRY DAVIES · J G PORTMAN · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 7RE SHARDANA (GER)JACK DOUGHTY · C HOBSON · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 4GALIMIX (IRE)CHARLES BISHOP · EVE JOHNSON HOUGHTON · draw 12 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 9PIEN DE DANE (IRE)IVAN ROSSI · H KOBEISSI · draw 4 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 12ONE NINE SEVEN (GB)CIEREN FALLON · LEMOS SOUZA · draw 10 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 11FRANKIE POWER (GB)CHRISTIAN HOWARTH · JACK JONES · draw 2 · pool — · market #12—#12

Race 7 · Chelmsford City · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
7f Synthetic · Handicap · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 11 of 12 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2ROOSIKE (IRE)BILLY LOUGHNANE · R HUGHES · draw 12 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 4NATIONAL PRIDE (IRE)CIEREN FALLON · W J HAGGAS · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6POTTERS MARGOT (GB)R HAVLIN · M CRAWLEY · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 8ROYAL TITAN (USA)D EGAN · M BOTTI · draw 10 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 1MARHABA YA TAYIB (IRE)CHARLES BISHOP · ADAM KIRBY · draw 1 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 3CALIFORNIAN ANGEL (GB)JASON WATSON · H PALMER · draw 11 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 10MALIQUI (IRE)PADDY BRADLEY · C FELLOWES · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 7KIGALI (GB)HECTOR CROUCH · OLLIE SANGSTER · draw 9 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 5ARTEMIS STAR (GB)DARRAGH KEENAN · W MUIR & C GRASSICK · draw 2 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 9ABSOLUTE DIAMOND (IRE)WILLIAM CARSON · P D EVANS · draw 7 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 11STAR BAYSIDE BOY (IRE)ASHLEY LEWIS · M P TREGONING · draw 8 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 12TEN OF CLUBS (GB)K T O'NEILL · S DIXON · draw 6 · pool — · market #12—#12

Race 8 · Chelmsford City · 5 runners

NO POOL YET
7f Synthetic · Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 0 of 5 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1INTSAAR (IRE)MISS REMIE MORGAN · A WATSON · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2MISSMISFORTUNE (IRE)ROSSA RYAN · CHARLIE PIKE · draw 1 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5TWO STEPS TWICE (GB)MIKKEL MORTENSEN · C FELLOWES · draw 2 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 3BAANDEE (GB)GEORGE WOOD · JACK MORLAND · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 4TILSWORTH BOE (GB)OLIVER CARMICHAEL · J R JENKINS · draw 3 · pool — · market #5—#5

Race 9 · Chelmsford City · 11 runners

NO POOL YET
6f Synthetic · Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 11 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 9PREFERRED (GB)BILLY LOUGHNANE · J TATE · draw 8 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 1FAR TOO FIZZY (GB)ROSSA RYAN · D LOUGHNANE · draw 7 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 6TRAVEL AGENT (IRE)CHARLES BISHOP · ADAM KIRBY · draw 1 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 2KOFFEE AND KALE (GB)HECTOR CROUCH · M L W BELL · draw 10 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 10GENERAL ASSEMBLY (IRE)JACK DOUGHTY · C HOBSON · draw 5 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 3FUSEBOARD (GB)JOEY HAYNES · C BANHAM · draw 9 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 8TACTICAL PLAN (GB)CIEREN FALLON · MARTIN DUNNE · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 4DARK SIDE THUNDER (GB)GEORGE WOOD · JESSICA MACEY · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 5PULL THE RUG (IRE)D EGAN · G HARRIS · draw 4 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 11POETIC GRACE (IRE)ALICE BOND · C ALLEN · draw 2 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 7WOOLRIDGE (GB)K T O'NEILL · S DIXON · draw 11 · pool — · market #11—#11

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on British racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 2,226 British races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 1,626 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-13.5 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves -0.2 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: failed. The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.83 · form3 +0.25 · adres -0.23 · antrenor +0.22 · son_bitis -0.18 · jokey +0.16 · aygir +0.14 · siklet +0.08 · damsire +0.08 · kgs -0.04 · h2h -0.04 · sahip +0.03 · draw +0.02 · hp -0.02 · n_gecmis +0.01 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have British form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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