Race 1 · Chelmsford Citypool vs model · Thu 5 Nov 2026
pool sharemodeledge, pts
  1. 10LABICHE (GB)-4.631% · 36%
  2. 1JENSON BENSON (IRE)-2.218% · 20%
  3. 6CELTIC SPIRIT (GB)-2.311% · 13%
  4. 7FAR FAR OUT (IRE)-0.18% · 8%
  5. 4MUY MUY LOCO (IRE)+0.76% · 5%
  6. 5GIFTS DIFFERING (GB)+1.56% · 4%
  7. 14ECHO THAT (GB)+3.74% · 0%
Result pending · record

Southwell picks — Sat 7 Nov 2026

Free horse racing picks for today's British cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 2,226 races, for every British track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

Today's picks →The record →

8 races today · 4 days on file · walk-forward test on 1,626 races out of sample · how it scored

Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 1 track0 usable of 8 races · model overturns the favourite in 0Written Fri 06 Nov 2026, 19:34 UK time · permalink

Pools not open yet

The Turkish tote opens its win pool on these 8 British races on the morning of the card (it stays thin until close to post time). This page was written from the race cards alone; verdicts and pool shares fill in about an hour before each track’s first race, once the pool has formed. Meanwhile: yesterday's results · the record.

Unproven model — read this first

In a walk-forward test on 1,626 races the combined model did not beat the tote pool (-0.2 points on top-3 coverage). The ranks below are published as an open experiment: each one is written before the race and scored on the record, with the pool favourite as the benchmark to beat.

Today · Sat 7 Nov 2026

8 races across Southwell. Rank = combined model (1 best); pool = early win-pool share when the page was written (see “Pool share and edge” below); edge = model minus pool, in points.

Race 1 · Southwell · 14 runners

NO POOL YET
Allowance · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 0 of 14 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 13SEDDEEG (IRE)BILLY LOUGHNANE · E BETHELL · draw 4 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 6HIGHLAND RANGER (GB)R HAVLIN · J & T GOSDEN · draw 10 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 10MICHAELEEN (IRE)CALLUM SHEPHERD · J & A O'NEILL · draw 5 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 4DEPUTY GENERAL (USA)S FOLEY · G BOUGHEY · draw 6 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 3BERKSHIRE TANGO (IRE)ROB HORNBY · A M BALDING · draw 2 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 8IRON CURTAIN (IRE)HECTOR CROUCH · R M BECKETT · draw 14 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 7IMPERIAL COURT (IRE)S D BOWEN · R VARIAN · draw 12 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 14SIDEWALKING (GB)EDWARD GREATREX · IAN WILLIAMS · draw 1 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 1ABROUQ (GB)P J MCDONALD · A M BALDING · draw 13 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 11QUITE SIMPLE (AUS)HARRY DAVIES · S CRISFORD · draw 9 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 5FINAL CONQUEST (IRE)DANIEL MUSCUTT · JAMES HORTON · draw 7 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 9KING JUAN (GB)KAIYA FRASER · HARRY EUSTACE · draw 3 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 12RING OF MUSIC (IRE)LEWIS EDMUNDS · H PALMER · draw 8 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 2BAHARI (GB)N CALLAN · JACK MORLAND · draw 11 · pool — · market #14—#14

Race 2 · Southwell · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 11 of 12 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 12BLUE SAMUNA (IRE)MARCO GHIANI · JAMES OWEN · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2AGE OF BAROQUE (FR)LEWIS EDMUNDS · JESSICA MACEY · draw 4 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 10TEGGY LASSO (IRE)HARRY DAVIES · M APPLEBY · draw 8 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 9RAMON DI LORIA (IRE)GREG FAIRLEY · EWAN WHILLANS · draw 11 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6TRAVIS (GB)SEAN KIRRANE · G A HARKER · draw 9 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1FOOLS RUSH IN (IRE)WILLIAM PYLE · MRS R CARR · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 11INFANTRY OFFICER (GB)WILLIAM CARSON · A W CARROLL · draw 3 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 3RIDGER (IRE)BILLY LOUGHNANE · OLLIE SANGSTER · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 7SOLID BOND (IRE)ROWAN SCOTT · A W CARROLL · draw 10 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 8CROWN THE FUTURE (IRE)CHARLIE TUCKER · A W CARROLL · draw 12 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 4UNCERTAINTY (IRE)T EAVES · S WHITAKER · draw 6 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 5FOR EVER HOPEFULL (IRE)CAM HARDIE · J R JENKINS · draw 5 · pool — · market #12—#12

Race 3 · Southwell · 13 runners

NO POOL YET
Maiden · 2yo Thoroughbreds · 3 of 13 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3AL ALAMI (GB)MARCO GHIANI · JAMES OWEN · draw 10 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 5CHAPEL DOWN (GB)R HAVLIN · ADAM KIRBY · draw 5 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2RATTENBURY (IRE)ROB HORNBY · C HILLS · draw 12 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 4BONDY BOY (GB)P J MCDONALD · G R OLDROYD · draw 4 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 7RED CABERNEIGH (GB)ALISTAIR RAWLINSON · M APPLEBY · draw 13 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 1PALMS OASIS (GB)R COAKLEY · R VARIAN · draw 6 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6JUST ZAIN (GB)HARRY DAVIES · J G PORTMAN · draw 9 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8ANNIE HALL (GB)HECTOR CROUCH · OLIVER COLE · draw 3 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 11LUCKY LARRY (GB)J F EGAN · DYLAN CUNHA · draw 8 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 10SHANKARI (GB)DANIEL MUSCUTT · J R FANSHAWE · draw 7 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 13MAEVEONTIME (IRE)JACK CALLAN · DYLAN CUNHA · draw 2 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 9RAINBOW MAGIC (IRE)CAM HARDIE · R A FAHEY · draw 1 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 12KITTY REY (IRE)S D BOWEN · OLLIE SANGSTER · draw 11 · pool — · market #13—#13

Race 4 · Southwell · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 12 of 12 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 11TAM LIN (IRE)HARRY DAVIES · M APPLEBY · draw 1 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3JET WARRIOR (GB)DYLAN HOGAN · L A MULLANEY · draw 10 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1UP THE ANTI (IRE)WILLIAM CARSON · A W CARROLL · draw 12 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 8TEARDROPS (GB)CHARLIE TUCKER · A W CARROLL · draw 11 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 10AUNTIE JO (GB)S D BOWEN · K SCOTT · draw 7 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 2BLACKJACK (GB)ROWAN SCOTT · A D BROWN · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 6MASAI ANGEL (FR)D NOLAN · R A FAHEY · draw 6 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 4MASTER DANDY (IRE)MILLIE WONNACOTT · DAISY HITCHINS · draw 4 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 5OTTAWA (GB)BILLY LOUGHNANE · L BAILEY · draw 5 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 7DRISH SAMPHIRE (IRE)C HORGAN · L A MULLANEY · draw 2 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 12PIPERSTOWN (IRE)MATTHEW SLATER · K FROST · draw 9 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 9THANKS DAD (GB)MIKKEL MORTENSEN · S DIXON · draw 8 · pool — · market #12—#12

Race 5 · Southwell · 9 runners

NO POOL YET
Allowance · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 6 of 9 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 1GO ON MY SON (GB)BILLY LOUGHNANE · C G COX · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3VALOR'S CALL (GB)DARRAGH KEENAN · GEORGE SCOTT · draw 8 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 2NANDO TORNADO (IRE)LEWIS EDMUNDS · T D BARRON · draw 6 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6KOHANA GIRL (IRE)MARCO GHIANI · J R JENKINS · draw 5 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 9ZIVA'S STAR (GB)T EAVES · S WHITAKER · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 4BUTTERFLY BEACH (IRE)S D BOWEN · OLLIE SANGSTER · draw 1 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 5KATIE LOUISE (GB)JACK CALLAN · MARTIN DUNNE · draw 9 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8MOIRA EXPRESS (IRE)RHYS ELLIOTT · S WHITAKER · draw 7 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 7MARCH OF TIME (IRE)ROB HORNBY · J CHANNON · draw 3 · pool — · market #9—#9

Race 6 · Southwell · 14 runners

NO POOL YET
Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 12 of 14 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 8BONA FORTUNA (IRE)CALLUM SHEPHERD · M APPLEBY · draw 5 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2KINETIC FORCE (GB)BILLY LOUGHNANE · MRS R CARR · draw 11 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1FENLANDER (GB)OLIVER CARMICHAEL · OLLY WILLIAMS · draw 7 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 6WATEEN (IRE)JACK CALLAN · R M H COWELL · draw 2 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 9CHANGEOFMIND (IRE)D NOLAN · D CARROLL · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 4MASTER OF MY FATE (IRE)T EAVES · J & S QUINN · draw 3 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 12SOUTH SHORE (GB)MARCO GHIANI · R M H COWELL · draw 8 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 10CALL MARGOT (IRE)ROWAN SCOTT · G TUTTY · draw 13 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 7SECRET MISTRAL (GB)CHARLIE TUCKER · A W CARROLL · draw 9 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 14COURT DRIVE (IRE)R HAVLIN · MISS GAY KELLEWAY · draw 12 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 5TOOLATETONEGOTIATE (GB)MILLIE WONNACOTT · DAISY HITCHINS · draw 10 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 11BRAVE NATION (IRE)ALISTAIR RAWLINSON · M J ATTWATER · draw 6 · pool — · market #12—#12
  13. 3LEADING TIMES (GB)KAIYA FRASER · R MENZIES · draw 14 · pool — · market #13—#13
  14. 13TEES SPIRIT (GB)J GARRITTY · ADRIAN NICHOLLS · draw 1 · pool — · market #14—#14

Race 7 · Southwell · 12 runners

NO POOL YET
Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 10 of 12 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 3CLIPSHAM NOBLE (IRE)ROB HORNBY · CHARLIE CLOVER · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 2GLITTER CODE (IRE)CALLUM SHEPHERD · W J KNIGHT · draw 9 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 1PRINCE ACHILLE (GB)J GARRITTY · JEDD O'KEEFFE · draw 12 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 7MASEGO (IRE)BILLY LOUGHNANE · A W CARROLL · draw 7 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 11EMERALD REINE (GB)DYLAN HOGAN · J & S BIRKETT · draw 4 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 5SAHM NAIF (IRE)DANIEL MUSCUTT · JAMES HORTON · draw 11 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 12MAKE IT UP (IRE)MARCO GHIANI · W J KNIGHT · draw 5 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 4MAN IS KING (IRE)DARRAGH KEENAN · D FLOOD · draw 8 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 10CAMECLOSE (IRE)HARRY DAVIES · A W CARROLL · draw 6 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 8SOMEONE'S WISH (IRE)JACK CALLAN · P MORRIS · draw 3 · pool — · market #10—#10
  11. 9CAVALRY CALL (IRE)KAIYA FRASER · P MORRIS · draw 10 · pool — · market #11—#11
  12. 6COSMIC MAN (IRE)C HORGAN · L A MULLANEY · draw 1 · pool — · market #12—#12

Race 8 · Southwell · 10 runners

NO POOL YET
APRANTİ race Handicap · 3yo+ Thoroughbreds · 7 of 10 with British form on file

Pool not open yet — runners in card order; the verdict arrives with the next refresh once the tote opens.

  1. 2JACK LANGLEY (GB)LIAM WRIGHT · CHARLIE CLOVER · draw 2 · pool — · market #1—#1
  2. 3SISTERANDBROTHER (GB)JACK CALLAN · JOEY RAMSDEN · draw 3 · pool — · market #2—#2
  3. 5TRAPPER JOHN (GB)TRAVIS FORD · HARRY EUSTACE · draw 10 · pool — · market #3—#3
  4. 9NEW BAY STAR (IRE)JUDE MAHER · M APPLEBY · draw 9 · pool — · market #4—#4
  5. 6SYCAMORE GAP (GB)TOM KIELY-MARSHALL · GRANT TUER · draw 8 · pool — · market #5—#5
  6. 7DOLLAR'S DREAM (IRE)RHYS ELLIOTT · P A KIRBY · draw 7 · pool — · market #6—#6
  7. 1JUNKYARD DOG (IRE)CARA TUKE · I JARDINE · draw 1 · pool — · market #7—#7
  8. 8BEGGARMAN (GB)C HORGAN · H MORRISON · draw 6 · pool — · market #8—#8
  9. 4FRAM CASTLE (IRE)ALEXANDRA EGAN · M WIGHAM · draw 4 · pool — · market #9—#9
  10. 10DAMZON (GB)MOLLY GUNN · A W CARROLL · draw 5 · pool — · market #10—#10

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on British racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 2,226 British races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 1,626 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-13.5 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves -0.2 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: failed. The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.83 · form3 +0.25 · adres -0.23 · antrenor +0.22 · son_bitis -0.18 · jokey +0.16 · aygir +0.14 · siklet +0.08 · damsire +0.08 · kgs -0.04 · h2h -0.04 · sahip +0.03 · draw +0.02 · hp -0.02 · n_gecmis +0.01 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have British form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.

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